Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Big plans above. A corrective dip had room and time to develop Friday. But the open was only slightly weaker before recovering to fresh highs at 76.14. Thursday’s opening gap did not require a retest. So, closing above it – and above Thursday’s high – is is the work of new sponsorship. Additionally, Monday’s tend to mimic Friday’s action in currencies, making the rally likely to extend, next targeting 77.00. Not exploiting these very bullish elements and closing under 75.65 would instead be very bearish.
Gold Jun (GCM) Absorbing a lot of selling pressure. The corrective rally wasn’t likely to resume Friday, or to extend very far. Regardless, sellers weren’t likely to gain traction. In fact, the rally never showed, as a steep drop retested Thursday’s 1482.00 intraday low. That should be only noise, allowing it to hold. If the Dollar’s rally fizzles Monday, then Gold could launch a corrective rally targeting 1557.00-1560.00.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Hardly worth the wait. The trading range finally broke Friday, attacking the 125’06 target to within 2 ticks. Overbought RSIs there suggest it will be retested, presumably to actually touch 125’06. At that point, closing under 124’12 could signal the breakout was false, and reverse momentum down. Without touching 125’06, a close under 124’26 would be needed to signal momentum reversing down. Closing above 125’06 would be bullish.
Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Waiting for news. Friday’s downside volatility was relatively limited – less than $2 – and ultimately not productive as the session ended positive. That would suffice as the expected consolidation, which could persist into Monday. Regardless, new lows remain likely, probably in reaction to news.
Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Warning shot across the bow. Multiple consecutive sessions of are basing. An afternoon surge stopped short of touching 4.25, and might not prevent a brief dip Monday to fresh lows. But either closing above 4.30, or recovering from a fresh low under 4.15 to close positive Monday above 4.25, would trigger a significant rally targeting 4.50, and potentially 4.80.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).