Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) In time? The week-long consolidation was at least one day late in resuming the rally when Friday’s open gapped up and extended sharply higher. The afternoon retraced most of the post-open gain. But a close above 75.70 would signal the rally had resumed. As a side note, the Dollar and Gold both rose Friday, although not in tandem, a relationship that tends not to last for two consecutive sessions.
Gold Jun (GCM) Second wind. The vulnerability to probe fresh highs Friday morning was quickly fulfilled by a gap up that probed 1503.00. Then a deep reversal attacked Thursday’s lows down to 1486.40. But rather then extend down, a $19 rally attacked 1516.00. Closing above 1518.00 would signal the corrective rally is already underway without first probing fresh lows. Otherwise, closing under 1499.00 would signal the decline had resumed. As a side note, the Dollar and Gold both rose Friday, although not in tandem, a relationship that tends not to last for two consecutive sessions.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Too late. Friday’s opening strength probed back above Wednesday’s 124’20 lows. That was one day too late to gain traction. In fact, Friday only ranged sideways around 124’20, further establishing its resistance. There is room for noise up to 125’06, where a higher close would signal another rally attempt underway. Otherwise, closing under 123’28-124’00 would signal a new downleg underway.
Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Eery. [Rolling coverage to Jul, which trades at a 70-cent premium to Jun] Friday’s opening $1-1/2 drop extended Thursday’s weak inside day, probing under Wednesday’s lows to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. By mid-morning. Then, amazingly, the entire opening loss was recovered into the noon hour, and the close ended above the open. It was as if the morning’s sell-off was motivated by an unsubstantiated fear that peace would break out over the weekend. Greeting the new week without any higher threat level or without new hostilities could resume the decline aggressively. Otherwise, extending Friday’s recovery at even the shallowest slope would be very unnerving.
Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Bullish. Thursday’s dip under 4.15 was recovered Friday, along with 4.20 to signal a rally underway targeting 4.50 and potentially 4.80, so long as 4.18 were to hold any test as support.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).