Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Stretching (my) credulity. I am surprised that so much selling pressure already expended through Wednesday – from Monday’s fresh high – could be followed so dramatically Thursday. So, imagine my surprise at Friday’s deeper gap down. Thursday’s sellers gained no traction and left no unfinished business below. Extending down into a downleg would all but require gapping down under 74.75 prior lows. Otherwise, I have to view the pattern as over-extended pullback that makes the eventual recovery likelier to be a new upleg instead of only a retest of the 76.54 prior high
Gold Jun (GCM) Giving the bounce more room. The recovery extended up above the 1527.00 and 1530.00 resistance, getting a benefit of the doubt for extending higher to the 1557.00-1560.00 corrective bounce target. The bounce must continue performing without hesitation, which is the nature of a corrective bounce. That could be an issue in case of a $USD bounce. Now pullbacks must hold 1527.00 as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Waiting for firewords. Friday was not very productive, failing to confirm Thursday’s breakout. But 125’06 wasn’t attacked or broken, so there remains potential up to 126’30. The path is not yet predictable, so the pattern is not attractive for trading. But until actually closing under a prior low there is no sell signal to calculate.
Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Optimism in check. Friday’s narrow inside day did not exploit the repeated testing of the 101.50 upper-end of the trading range. The delay, without a deeper dip, does help to confirm that any break higher is likely to be only temporary. Regardless, closing under 99.35-99.50 is still needed to trigger the next downleg targeting 88.75.
Natural Gas Jul (NGN) A little room to pause. Friday’s gap up above 4.40 extended higher to totally exploit Thursday’s big recovery back above 4.33. The intraday day high fulfilled the 4.55 target, which held an intraday retest. A pullback has room intraday down to 4.35-4.40 before extending higher to 4.80. But actually closing under 4.40 would become vulnerable to trending down sharply.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).