Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was also a breakout, awaiting confirmation from a lower close Friday. It wasn’t expected since ineffectual pessimism breakouts are unlikely to be confirmed. And it wasn’t. Coincidentally, Friday close right back at 76.65, which was the long-standing objective inhibiting the past month’s rally attempts. The pattern has done everything it needs to for creating a bottom, just waiting for 77.00‘s recovery to trigger a rally leg.
Gold Dec (GCZ) The rally extended, and no sell signal will be triggered without first closing back under 1380.00-1381.00. Higher targets have potential next to 1420.00-1421.00.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) The 1231’25 sell signal’s test at Thursday’s close launched another gap down. Its post-open spike down expended a lot of selling pressure but still failed to probe prior lows. That is required by prior signals, so any bottoming attempt prior to that is likely to fail.
Crude Oil Nov (CLZ) Thursday’s test of 86.45 could have fulfilled the pattern’s buying pressure. Thursday’s highs were probed overnight and into Friday’s close, so 86.45 was not rejected. Since a new high close on Friday in this market tends to extend into Monday, the next higher target at 88.40 is probably in-play. Gapping down Monday under 85.20 would instead trigger an Island Reversal.
Natural Gas Nov (NGZ) The pattern continues to behave bullishly, and smartly. Friday’s open gapped up, creating newly unfinished business below at the gap back to Thursday’s close. Then an intraday dip neutralized it, and the close recovered into positive territory, retesting the morning’s high. A close above 3.96-3.97 would signal the next rally leg is underway.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).