Daily Spot: Week ender.
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Last week’s action began with hints of the turning points we have been looking for. The week ended with those turns making themselves obvious. The turns can still be proved false, either at this week’s opens or by reversing initial gains by the close. But their turns are likely to hold, being in the making for multiple weeks.
Special request Cotton (CT) A 97.00-107.00 consolidation ended as September became October. Its rally extended higher to 156.45. Friday’s pullback ended while testing 140.35 as support. This can serve as a complete correction, if several days of basing then resume the rally, whose next target would be 167.00 (+/- .25). Failing to hold the 140.35 support through Monday’s close would be bearish.
Special request Sugar (SB) – Friday’s close was in the process of testing 26.30, which could serve as the correction low from Tuesday’s 33.32 high of the rally. Regardless, there is near-term potential for at least a bounce up to 30.05 (+/- .25) where the decline could resume abrubtly, or else the high’s would be retested.
Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Friday’s opening gap down into negative territory recovered intraday at least close flat. There is no reason to further delay triggering a new rally leg.
Gold Dec (GCZ) With no unfinished business remaining outstanding above, Friday’s opening gap down extended sharply lower to close under October’s prior highs. No bounce is required before extending down, but a bounce would be limited to testing 1381.00-1382.00 as resistance.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Friday’s close was still in the process of testing 128’03, which held its test Wednesday to avoid triggering a bigger downleg. Extending down without any further delay would next target the 126’00 area. Otherwise, a corrective bounce has room up to 129’24-130’00, and perhaps also 130’12-130’16.
Crude Oil Nov (CLZ) The reaction down from Wednesday night’s test and retest of the 88.40 target extended down sharply Friday to 84.52. The open gapped down to the rally’s previous 86.40-86.45 target, which should now hold any test as resistance to maintain the drop’s 82.00 target
Natural Gas Nov (NGZ) Thursday’s dip extended Friday, back down to 3.80 where the first upleg’s buy signal had originally triggered. This must be rejected with almost no delay to resume the recovery without first probing new lows, and potentially triggering a new extended downleg.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…
Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).