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Daily Spot: Week ender. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Week ender.

By Rod David | September 24, 2010 - 4:41 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.

[pay]Gold Dec (GCZ) Higher highs probed the widely watched 1300.00 up to 1301.60. It was retraced down to the 1294.00 target that is the 200% swing from the recent failed Head & Shoulders pattern. Although it was still being tested as support through the close, it has not been exceeded in a way that would create higher targets. At least two of the three outstanding gaps below should be filled regardless of the pattern’s eventual resolution.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Two days of distribution above 132’28 all but required at least a dip down to 131’20. Friday’s low came within 1 tick. The margin wouldn’t be remarkable, except that it was met early enough to allow plenty of time for either a bounce, or for a slightly lower low to recover. Instead, it is excessive optimism. A failed bounce back to the 133’28 132’28 area would help to seal a top.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Despite holding 75.65 resistance Thursday, Friday broke $1 higher. Its break was early, and the morning’s high was tested repeatedly throughout the afternoon. If confirmed by closing higher Monday, then a rally leg targeting 79.55 is underway.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Thursday’s inappropriate optimism was not retraced low enough to suffer any consequence. A retest of prior lows was required, and Friday’s gap down quickly complied. Now the only unfinished business is above, the gap back to Thursday’s 4.15 close. Monday morning is probably too soon to retry a rally, but any strength following a lower low under 4.00 would be credible for extending higher.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) The open’s gap under 79.93 extended down to new lows. It leaves outstanding a gap back to Thursday’s 80.24 close. It might attract price higher intraday, but a close above 79.93 is needed to confirm a bottom is in.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

Posted in Daily Spot