Daily Spotlight: Energies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.
[pay]Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Friday’s rejection (highlighted green) of Thursday’s rejection (highlighted red) should have bought time for firming further into Wednesday morning. Instead the pattern’s initial follow-through was retraced through Wednesday morning.
Having turned this cycle on its head, a bounce from Wednesday’s 74.65 open became likely. The entire session trended up to confirm.
So long as pullbacks now hold 75.45 as support, the bounce can extend higher to test 77.20-77.50. Any higher would then target 79.25 and 80.05 before a more substantial downleg would begin (i.e. the prior downleg would resume).
Natural Gas Nov (NGV) The bottoming pattern forming since August’s low has already tried to launch a recovery. It began with last Thursday’s test of the range’s 3.70 low. It continued with Friday’s gap up, that extended higher to fill the prior week’s outstanding gap at 3.93.
Each of the three successive days probed higher highs (circled green). Each session’s higher close (highlighted green) was within the prior day’s higher high. This leaves the pattern vulnerable to a quick corrective dip back to the range’s lower-end towards 3.80.
Extending higher without first correcting would next target 4.10 and 4.35. Regardless, the two-week long bottoming effort did just that, and any attack on it or retest of it would likely hold.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Not much ranging since Tuesday’s high tested 1275.00 resistance. Which also means no immediate close back under either of the two prior highs.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Wednesday’s gap down created a gap back to Tuesday’s close. An intraday bounce essentially filled it, neutralizing its attraction. This created a gap back to the open, which was filled that afternoon without closing lower. The inside day requires gapping open beyond either end to resume trending.
Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Wednesday’s confirmation of Tuesday’s break allowed sellers to refuel with a bounce. BOJ Yen intervention obliged. The close above 81.50/81.65 suggests the pause will extend into Friday.
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Weekly Spotlight coverage’s schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).