Did sellers regain control Wednesday?

Did sellers regain control Wednesday? Or, did the NYSE halt delay a recovery. One big indication is that the last 60-90 minutes probed under the morning”s low but failed to recover. By not rejecting those late sellers, the market tacitly endorses them — and their direction. So, holding short could be contemplated, with two caveats:

First, although the fresh low wasn”t rejected, neither was it extended. Especially not before coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. While already breaking lower would have been optimal for the setup, ranging calmly sideways was a kind of eerie calm before the storm.

Second, Wednesday”s drop was largely “ineffectual pessimism,” being an inside day that trended down. But ineffectual optimism appeared while hovering just above Tuesday”s low throughout Wednesday”s final hour. Gapping down Thursday would be a normal delayed reaction.

There is actually a third caveat, as important as the first two, but different. The NYSE”s unprecedented three-hour halt probably affected my timing windows somehow, and to some degree. Unless Thursday”s open is way out of line, I”ll assume the halt”s influence is moot.

Speaking of Thursday”s open… One way to instantly invalidate the downside potential is by gapping up. Not a little, but 14 points to recover Wednesday afternoon”s 2053.25 high. We would presume, as usual in this setup, that rejecting Wednesday afternoon”s rally would form a session-long rally.

Otherwise, extending down at all at this stage is likely to extend a lot. And steeply. Starting on Thursday morning would be likely to extend through Monday morning. Either way, the market is not about to begin behaving calmly.

More discussion is found in the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhcstr

[I”ll make overnight links to the chaRTroom available later in this post”s comments section]