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Except for that bias-down thing… – If, Then… Market Timing

Except for that bias-down thing…

Sellers satisfied quickly, which buyers rush to exploit.

es_031214_am.gif[pay]Pre-open lows probed into the 1856.50-1858.00 target area. A post-open bounce held 1861.00 resistance. Its reaction down plummeted to 1853.75.

Post-open action had fulfilled the complexity and trending dictated by yesterday afternoon’s pattern. Post-open lows had fulfilled the targets created by yesterday’s patterns.

None of which means the sell-off has ended, let alone that a bottom has finished forming. Reversing back up above 1856.50-1858.00 all the way to 1864.00 doesn’t mean that either. But it’s a start.

Meanwhile, this is a bias-down environment. Bounces aren’t required to fail, since the 1858.00 bias-down target has been met already. But the 1864.25 bias-down signal should define the range’s upper-end. And exiting the bias environment under 1856.50-1858.00 would suggest the decline was extending.

However, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above 1864.25 would suggest that sellers were trapped. And, recall that yesterday’s bullish pattern was inverted? Retesting Friday’s high on that pattern would have reversed down sharply. That steep reversal from a new extreme might have inverted, too, which would be bullish.

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