Falling in a bias-up environment.

[pay]The noon hour was entered above the ESm 1394’00 bias-up signal, and also exited above it. The noon hour’s higher high was tested momentarily before 1:20, but then recovered up to 1398’25 by 1:30. Apparently buyers expended a lot of energy in all that, since S&Ps have since fallen to nearly 1391’00. MACD & RSI didn’t deteriorate much throughout, and they’re even trying to diverge positively here at new afternoon lows at the bottom of the hour.

Back above 1395’50 not long after the top of the hour would have potential to deliver a week-ending short-squeeze. That only gets less likely with each passing minute, so I wouldn’t position for it early. But it is difficult giving too much credibility to this break under 1394’00 with technicals not deteriorating.[/pay]