Filter this: Happy New Year! Or, maybe that’s what they WANT us to think…

Will there be a January Effect this year, or not? Usually, selling pressures begin diminishing among lagging stocks around Thanksgiving. That is displayed in the form of firming prices, which then attracts actual buying pressure before Christmas.

Often, when laggards have been lagging relentlessly into Autumn, the anticipation for a Thanksgiving bottom can trigger a Halloween rally. Coming so much earlier allows time for another low, and another year-ending rally.

Rarely is there no discernible rally before New Year”s Eve, which was the case last year (i.e. 2014). A likely culprit may have been the extended rally that continued benefiting its leadership. In other words, who needs to bottom-fish the laggards when the leadership is still so strong?

Well, we”ll soon see.

Perhaps the ongoing rally has been produced by little more than quarter-end portfolio window dressing. That influence is as done as year-end tax loss selling pressures. Wednesday”s year-ending tumble might have been the early warning of rotation that can finally benefit lagging stocks — before the broader market can reverse its trend down, its choppy ranging allows lagging stocks to start outperforming.

That”s the template which we”ll be comparing to actual price action. Relentlessly beaten-down stocks. This weekend I”ll broaden the list of January Effect candidates based on today”s performances coming out of the gate. I”ll also be introducing general stock picks, including a short-sale focus that could become very handy soon.

Today is only the year”s first session, and I already see signs of low participation. Try not to force a trade — there will be plenty of opportunity.