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Filter THIS! No stock is an island. – If, Then… Market Timing

Filter THIS! No stock is an island.

Today”s one thing is… no stock is an island.

If an unhalted stock plunges, does it make a sound? It used to, but not anymore. Another halt was lifted Monday in FSPM, it dropped more than 60%, and the sector didn”t offer any homage. More so, no one was surprised, because everyone is comfortable with the new environment.

The broader market is another story. The S&P 500 (SPX) has reached another new high, which the Dow has finally joined. The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) is right on the cusp of joining them. Each has recovered from April lows, which were well above February”s prior lows. Then there is the Russell 2000 (RUT), which most resembles our marijuana sector. 

The RUT remains in a rut, ranging at its lows. In May it probed momentarily under April”s low, which was under February”s low. The MJ sector is uniquely positioned relative even to the RUT, and especially relative to the other indexes, for ignoring the traditionally difficult summer market funk. Already, the maxim “Sell in May and go away” has been the opposite for us. But that doesn”t immunize the MJ sector from ebbing and flowing investor sentiment.

I had noted the bottoming effort on April 15, which proved important, but premature. I noted the next one two weeks ago, which has proved important, too, if not also well-timed with very broad participation. But the broader market has reached crossroads. Its new high is tenuous, and cannot hesitate to extend higher pretty much here and now to avoid another downdraft. And almost any downdraft would encourage profit-taking elsewhere.

Many of our stocks have had nice runs recently, whether only back up to prior resistance (e.g. BRDT, ENRT, MCIG), or through one resistance and to another (TRTC). Others on our watch list have pulled back to support (ERBB, FITX, GRCU, SPRWF, VAPE), and some languish (TWMJF, TAUG). All are at a crossroads, too. Extended rallies may get hit, extended consolidations may dip, and pullbacks might only blip-up before entering their own consolidations.

No stock is an island. It may not rise and drop to the same degree or with the exact same timing as the broader market. But it will be influenced, if it”s not itself already an influence. Nevertheless, we”ll remain bullish near-term until the broader market stumbles.

Filter THIS! …is a pre-open missive that tells you one thing, the most important thing, if you had to filter your view of today”s marijuana stocks price action through just one thing — okay, sometimes two — what would that one thing be?