Filter THIS! Plus ça change…
Today”s one thing is… Plus ça change.
“Plus ça change, plus c”est la même chose.” The more things change, the more they remain the same. Ecclesiastes” version isn”t too dissimilar: “There is nothing new under the sun.”
I”m referring to you. (Referring, not reefering. That”s another article.)
A stock picking service I launched in 1995 was in the thick of the internet boom (both the stock sector, and being among the first to set up practice there. The internet stock mania had inspired encouraged the broader market higher into 2000, for a month of topping that led to a huge collapse.
The next two years were difficult for individual stocks. My charting wasn”t surprised by the top and the turn, but I had no forecast for its duration. My short picks were doing well, but not too many subscribers want to trade in that environment. (That”s when I first began applying my methodologies to other markets, including futures, that hardly distinguish between long and short.)
Subscriber growth began expanding again in August 2002. Many were returning after having thrown up their hands in disgust at the persistent downtrend about two years earlier. Man must trade, so eventually people began accepting the new paradigm, and came home.
Here”s what reminds me of this.
Last week, popular demand led me to offer non-MJ analysis. Our sector teased at a bottom on April 15, which has held for many individual stocks, but not for enough. Renewed selling was reminiscent of the drops into April”s lows, and only a couple of marijuana stocks can be shorted responsibly. So, “let”s broaden our horizons, Rod,” was repeated often into the weekend.
I recognized it immediately, and added a lot of names to the daily Open”s Interest parameters. And a lot of marijuana sector names surged this morning, with multiple double-digit gains. The last time a big bear market finally pushed away enough bulls that they were willing to accept that environment as the new reality, the reality had already begun changing back. The same might apply to the marijuana sector”s recent decline, and the sudden surge among subscribers in wanting to shift their focus.
The first reaction up was pretty steep. I”m not assuming the sector is reversing straight up from here without hesitation. But the cycle of boom to bust isn”t an imaginary invention. It often extends from there to back-off, and to back-in and back up.
Until proved otherwise, it”s Déjà vu, all over again.