Filter This! (pre-open missive that

Filter This! (pre-open missive that tells you one thing, the most important thing, if you had to filter your view of marijuana stocks price action through just one thing — okay, sometimes two — what would that one thing be?)

Today”s one thing is expiration.

The third Friday of every month is “option expiration.” Today is also a quarterly expiration, called “Quadruple Witch,” for its inclusion of most financial futures (indexes and bonds), and options on both stocks and futures. So, what?

Except for the few cannabis stocks that have become optionable (e.g. GWPH), this shouldn”t influence our space, right? Well, not directly. But indirect influence can be worse, because it is sneakier.

Broader market trending is a product of optimism and pessimism. Broader market trending also produces optimism and pessimism. If today”s expiration were to trend down (which is distinctly possible, despite being indicated to gap up), the pessimism it breeds will inhibit people from buying speculative cannabis stocks — especially ahead of two days of illiquidity (when the stock can”t be sold).

Sometimes broader market pessimism can help the cannabis sector. Recall this year”s start, when the broader market was beginning a big drop, making the cannabis sector more attractive in comparison. But that scenario probably won”t repeat.

So, today”s Filter This is weekend. Oh, it”s tonight”s filter, too. But that”s another story…