Filter this: What are the odds…

Today”s one thing is: What are the odds…

Three days down, what are the odds. No, seriously, what are the odds of the market closing down for three consecutive sessions? There”s no real answer, but only because there are so many.

It”s not that the specific probability can”t be calculated. So, what? There is no such thing as one specific market condition, so the value of knowing that probability could be dangerous.

Three consecutive lower closes off of a new high is not uncommon when the new high is part of a range instead of part of a trend. You might have deduced already that the third consecutive lower close is then part of that same range — as much “noise” as was the range”s fresh high that resolved down into the three-day decline.

Poker players reading this have recognized another consideration, and that is the odds at different stages. The odds of a single session”s decline becoming a three-day run are less than those of a two-day decline. Of course, a poker hand has multiple opportunities to connect, with the flop, on the turn, or at the river. A three-day decline must be consecutive.

So, today”s gap down follows two prior down days. And it”s still within the context of a four-week old trading range, this being toward its lower-end. The odds of completing a three-day run are lower than the odds of holding. And being the market, the odds of reversing back up — after expending more than two days of selling pressure — are better.

Now, the odds of extending down much more substantially after a three-day streak? Pretty good. Staying away from that third lower close leaves intact either a trading range or a rally. Two out of three. What are the odds of that.

Filter THIS! …is a missive that tells you one thing, the most important thing, if you had to filter your view of today”s marijuana stocks price action through just one thing — okay, sometimes two — what would that one thing be?