The First Trade… Aaaannd, we’re back.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Opening flat Wednesday with Tuesday’s cash session close had immediately that intraday trending would be unlikely. Not surprising, since volume was depressed from limited participation for the Jewish holiday. So, after the open quickly dipped several points to attack 2126.00, the balance of the morning recovered into positive territory at 2137.00. Trending higher into and out of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes touched 2139.50, but there was nothing accumulative about the pattern. The balance of the session trended back down to unchanged under 2132.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s late-afternoon dip extended through unchanged attack the morning’s low. Bouncing back to 2131.00 soon failed in reaction to bad economic news from China. Sliding more sharply down to 2115.00 has since ranged choppily sideways. Fresh lows probed 2113.50 after Europe’s opens, reacting up to 2122.50, still in the choppy range.

If, then…
A bullish scenario Wednesday would have exploited the low-volume environment and neutralized Tuesday’s oversold RSIs left outstanding from its 2121.75 low. But trending is likelier today than it was yesterday, so testing 2121.75 overnight probed it by another 7-9 points. We already know there’s no bullish reason to have tested 2121.75, so recovering from its retest depends on isolating it by already extending up from it through the open. Otherwise, today could duplicate Tuesday’s gap down and steep, deep follow-through.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2125.25 would be likely to trigger the 2127.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2118.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2121.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.