The First Trade… Another recovery?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping down Wednesday to fresh lows testing 2042.00 was quickly retraced 11 points up to 2053.25, and was still 4 points below Tuesday’s close. Trending back down found fresh lows at 2039.00 during the afternoon bias environment. Choppy, flat-to-higher ranging retraced it to attack 2048.00, overlapping Friday’s lows into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex session immediately began contrasting itself to Wednesday afternoon’s choppy, flat-to-higher ranging. Trending up through 2048.00 extended to attack 2057.00 ahead of Europe’s opens. A reaction down to 2051.50 was recovered by a surge up to 2060.00. The surge’s complete retracement down to 2051.00 is trying to recover, now testing 2055.00.

If, then…
Tuesday’s break putting into play 2030.00-2035.00 was not invalidated, but it wasn’t very productive. Hold-short was narrowly avoided as there remained vulnerability to a bigger bounce overnight. But actually reversing the trend would require gapping up to and through 2057.00-2059.50. In fact, the overnight high fully tested this resistance. Its reaction down to 2051.00 is both steep and deep, but it has plenty of time to recover. Regardless of gapping up and regardless of the overnight highs, not triggering bias-up would maintain the ongoing downtrend.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2052.50 would be likely to trigger the 2049.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2057.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2055.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2048.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.