The First Trade… Another shot.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Already gapping down to its next objective at 2149.00, Friday’s decline extended even deeper during Monday’s open to 2141.25. Recovering back to the open never gained traction, and the balance of the session trended down to fresh lows at 2136.50. Closing at 2138.00-2139.00 held the deepest level that still allows the decline to be considered only a temporary pullback. No unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Dropping eventually to 2133.25 was unable to extend before recovering and reversing sharply higher to 2154.00. That’s 4 points above the intraday high. But Europe’s weaker opens were more focused on the ongoing Deutsche Bank story, now joined by Volkswagen’s saga, and a 61.8% pullback has touched 2140.75. Its reaction just bounced up to the 2146.00 bias-up signal.

If, then…
Was Monday’s drop caused by concerns that Trump, presumably being bad for stocks, might that night’s debate? Overnight action reflects that the market also believes his election chances diminished. More relevant to this morning’s price action is whether the overnight rally has compensated for yesterday afternoon’s missed short-squeeze setup. Its measurements would qualify it, which would be bullish, since the short-squeeze’s alternative was to resume the decline. Opening back under  yesterday afternoon’s last narrow range at 2138.00-2141.00 would put the decline back on-track. Otherwise, the open should still gap up to and or through yesterday’s 2149.00 high to make rallying today any likelier.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2149.00 would be likely to trigger the 2146.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2143.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.