The First Trade… Another shot.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s lower close failed to confirm Wednesday’s breakout. The alternative setup was fulfilled by trending down sharply instead. No traction was gained Thursday afternoon, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Thursday’s 2153.50 low, as was unfinished business above at 2171.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s 2158.00-2159.00 had ranged flat-to-lower down to 2156.00, but recovered entirely ahead of Europe’s opens. Trending since then has extended up to test yesterday afternoon’s 2164.25.sell signal as resistance.

If, then…
It is significant that not only was Wednesday’s breakout not confirmed, but that its reaction was to trend back down. Another breakout attempt today is unlikely. So, attempting another breakout attempt today would likely be rejected, too, perhaps more substantially than Thursday. Not gapping down gives the morning an opportunity to retest Wednesday’s 2169.75 highs, and to fulfill the 2171.25 unfinished business above, first. But similar to confirming Wednesday’s breakout, the alternative to exploiting the opportunity would be to resume Thursday’s decline.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2166.50 would be likely to trigger the 2165.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2161.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.