The First Trade… Anxiously awaiting payrolls.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
After two consecutive updays, Thursday was likely to offer another upleg at some point, so long as sellers had not retaken control at the open. Sellers did not retake control at the open, despite having drifted downward overnight to test 2259.00 and gap down slightly. Quickly filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 2264.50 close was the morning’s only rally. The morning eventually plunged to 2254.00 in reaction to Crude Oil tumbling. The afternoon trended back up, retracing all of the morning’s drop. But only all of the drop, and not any higher, let alone closing above the morning’s high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Still no higher high as price has drifted flat-to-lower ahead of this morning’s Employment Situation report. The 2261.50 low was touched through Europe’s opens, bouncing since then back up to 2264.50.

If, then…
The most bearish factor currently is not what sellers did yesterday, but what buyers did not. An overnight slide and morning plunge each were retraced separately. But neither retracement was reversed above their drop’s origin. That leaves this week’s recovery attempt vulnerable to this morning’s catalyst, the Employment Situation report. It’s not being greeted from the position of strength that would have been offered by closing positive. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down could still be absorbed and recover, but must be absorbed and recovered quickly to set a bullish tone for the morning. The reaction to the day’s two later Fed speakers has potential to be bullish, but their anticipation is likely at best to inhibit optimism. Gapping up must still be maintained through the open to expect extending higher into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are available before an Employment Situation report.