The First Trade… Australian banana peels.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday’s 2065.00 open gapped up just above Friday afternoon’s high and essentially marginalized sellers for the day. The choppy morning finally started resolving up at noon, rallying from 2063.00 to 2077.00. Then it ran into the lower-end of the range that had preceded Thursday afternoon’s drop — “higher prior lows” and pivotal trendline at 2076.50-2077.50. Despite seeming relentless, the rally gained no traction as only the bias environment’s exit was above a prior timing window’s high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging back to 2072.50 was sent spiraling lower by a Australia’s interest rate cut. The pace began slowing after probing under yesterday’s 2065.00 open, but has nevertheless extended to attack 2057.00. That’s under yesterday’s 2059.50 post-open low

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally created a lot of room to absorb selling pressure before it could damage the recovery’s pattern. That room ended around 2068.00-2069.00. Just recovering it would be a 61.8% retracement from current lows. And no influential econ report is scheduled today that might be a catalyst. Independently recovering to 2068.00-2069.00 pre-open would be credible, but that’s still resistance. The most bullish scenario might be another choppy morning. Not renewing the bias-down signal — recovering the 2064.50 bias-down target — would be bullish. Anything less would be vulnerable to retesting Friday’s lows, and there’s no bullish reason for that.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2059.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2064.50 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2066.00 would be unlikely to renew bias-down. Exiting the open above 2071.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2069.75 bias-down signal.