The First Trade… Awaiting the number.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday was the second consecutive session that overnight weakness extended to fresh lows through the open, only to reverse back up for the balance of the day. The open’s dip recovered from 2086.75 up to a last-minute touch of 2104.00. That fulfilled the required retest of Sunday night’s 2103.75 new Globex trend extreme. Tuesday’s 2100.00 gap up was retested, and still being overlapped into the close. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high, but never got confirmation that the rally had gained traction for its effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Volatility is often dormant ahead of the monthly Employment Situation report. Last night was no exception. An early blip-up made fresh highs up to 2105.00 (not qualifying as a new trend extreme), but price action since has ranged sideways. A touch of 2101.75 bounced back up temporarily to 2104.75. Its complete retracement has also bounced back, now touching 2105.00.
If, then…
Yesterday’s cash and futures sessions closes were above all prior intraday highs. But their structures were still overlapping the prior highs. The new high close isn’t necessarily disqualified from being a breakout, but it is in need of confirmation from a second consecutive higher close. Meanwhile, gapping up would be vulnerable to reversing down intraday, mostly through the open. Even trending up through the morning would be vulnerable to a late-afternoon reversal. Gapping down would be more vulnerable to extending down through the morning… NOTE: There is no Saturday Review this weekend, so post-market Wrap will be extended to discuss the bigger picture.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2106.25 would be likely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2111.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2109.50 bias-up target at 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2100.75 wold be unlikely to trigger bias-up.