The First Trade… Back-to-backing-and-filling.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Extending Tuesday night’s rally required almost immediate evidence at post-open Wednesday. And 8-point surge attacking 2264.00 did that, but also expended all available near-term buying pressure. That’s how Tuesday morning’s surge resolved, but not Wednesday. The morning’s 6-point correction resolved up to fresh highs at 2267.00, closing just above the open’s surge.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging attacked 2260.00 before Europe’s opens. Its reaction didn’t resume the rally, while ranging choppily around yesterday morning’s ~2264.00 surge high. Until the recent several minutes, which broke lower to fresh lows touching this morning’s 2259.25 bias-down signal.

If, then…
The two-day rally has retraced all but 2-3 points of last week’s decline from its 2269.50 high. And all but 6 points from the 2273.00 high. Two consecutively higher counter-trend closes have properties similar to a confirmed breakout — No higher close is required, but a pullback would likely recover. And a pullback today requires immediate evidence, similar to yesterday’s opening setup for extending the rally. So, regardless of gapping down, not sliding through the open should eventually resume the rally today, but sliding through the open is probably not a near-term buying opportunity.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2257.50 would be likely to trigger the 2259.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2261.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down