The First Trade… Back-and-fill.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up sharply Wednesday to 2058.00 was extended higher to 2064.50 during the morning’s bias environment. Reversing to fresh session lows attacked 2051.00 during the afternoon’s bias environment. A lot of selling pressure was expended without it triggering bias-down or leaving positive territory. The final hour’s bounce to 2060.50 released a lot of pent-up buying pressure, and the close drifted back down.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s closing drift extended through the overnight Globex open, eventually probing under Wednesday’s low down to 2050.25. A temporary bounce to 2054.50 resolved down to fresh lows at 2047.25, and its reaction up has returned to 2054.50.

If, then…
Having probed under yesterday’s lows a couple of times overnight, exiting the open within yesterday’s range could establish a floor for the day. Attacking yesterday’s highs would be likely, if not also probing fresh highs intraday. Resuming the rally through yesterday’s highs would not. Otherwise, backing-and-filling ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report remains likelier, probing deeper under the overnight lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2054.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2051.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2049.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.