The First Trade… Back, and forth, and back again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was in recovery mode from having probed Sunday night lows overnight, failing to reach the 2095.00 objective that had been put into play Wednesday afternoon. Two attacks on 2114.50 were held and reversed up sharply, to and through the relevant 2134.00 level, testing 2144.50 as the afternoon bias environment began lapsing. A sell signal at 2140.50 was probed twice, never deeper than its first 3 minutes, not until after the cash session close.greeted by three main influences. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high, but buyers otherwise gained no traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
The pattern of substantial swings into expiration is still playing out. Thursday’s late sell signal under 2140.50 extended down without delay to its 2134.75 and 2132.25 objectives, which retraced the afternoon’s 1:20 print AND its bias-down signal. Then volatility disappeared, as price ranged narrowly back up to 2136.00. Europe’s opens broke the mood, triggering a couple of downlegs that have now tested support at this morning’s 2127.00 bias-down target.
If, then…
Not gapping up limits the potential for a morning rally, since yesterday’s buyers gained no traction. Maintaining a gap down under 2134.00 helps to reject the single close above it yesterday, which threatened the ongoing distribution pattern. The close must also reject any intraday probe above 2134.00, with the aid of only a slightly bearish WedEX. That, and the overnight decline’s momentum, which seems to be snapping back down after yesterday’s rally had stretched the rubber band. But regardless of opening level, the most reliable directional indicator will be how the first 15 minutes of volatility resolves its gap down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2125.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2127.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2121.25. Exiting the open under 2130.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2132.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2134.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.