The First Trade… Backing off another brink.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s bounce came to within 1 point of neutralizing “unfinished business above” at 2210.50. Then the afternoon bias environment began lapsing, and proximity didn’t matter. The unfinished business was left outstanding. Reversing down sharply to 2201.25 probed back within the morning’s “lower prior highs.” The late low stopped just several ticks optimistically short of natural support at unchanged at 2200.00-2201.00. Firming into the close held 2203.75, which had been the morning’s bias-up signal.

Overnight action’s new info…
Remnants of Tuesday’s late slide were barely visible after the close. A slightly lower low only touched 2200.75, and only eventually. It was beneficial to still be trading in sympathy with Crude Oil, which required an almost immediate rally, and has produced it. Already retracing up to 2205.50 into Europe’s opens, the recovery has extended to probe yesterday’s high up to 2210.25.

If, then…
A similar setup to yesterday’s open is trying to resolve today in the bullish way that yesterday’s had failed. Both prior sessions’ late drops closed back under relevant support. In both setups, gapping up above the prior afternoon’s highs was the only path to marginalizing sellers for the day. Yesterday’s open was greeted by a failed overnight rally, and its intraday rally failed, too. Last night’s rally may yet fail by this morning’s open, but currently it’s probing fresh highs. Extending higher this morning would be likely at least to attack 2220.00 intraday. Not marginalizing buyers at the open could resume the decline with a vengeance.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2208.50 would be likely to trigger the 2207.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2205.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.