The First Trade… Banking the turn.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday’s 2145.75 gap up above last week’s range formed an anchor setup. Reacting down into its noon hour low held last week’s “lower prior highs” down to 2140.50. Bouncing through the afternoon eventually recovered enough to touch the opening print, stopping pessimistically short of touching fresh highs. The close qualifies as a breakout from a multi-session range. The breakout wasn’t optimal, since the session never actually broke its intraday pattern of lower lows and lower highs..

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s recovery gradually extended higher overnight. Slowly retracing Monday’s anchor setup never seemed optimistic, let alone impatient. The final upleg began at Europe’s opens, and probed above yesterday morning’s anchor to within 1 tick of the rally’s 2150.00 objective. The only sort of sentiment extreme has been by sellers, sliding quickly back down to unchanged at 2144.50 as while Italian bank Monte Paschi plunges.

If, then…
Extending Monday’s rally overnight doesn’t necessarily dismiss the potential to form a bearish “session-long decline” setup. It would be triggered by gapping down back under Monday afternoon’s 2142.25. The trigger wasn’t very far away as of Monday’s close, and not much further when fulfilling the 2150.00 objective overnight — which has been retraced entirely. There’s no assurance of retesting the overnight high, let alone extending through it. Probing positive territory post-open would prevent isolating the overnight optimism, and help to avoid what could otherwise be a very bearish day.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2149.00 would be likely to trigger the 2148.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2143.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.