The First Trade… Bearish is bullish, and vice-versa.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s 15-point  gap down to 2090.00 didn’t extend down immediately, but eventually it extended down a lot. The mid-morning bounce to 2094.00 was reversed to the afternoon’s 2079.50 low. Too late for counter-trending to gain traction, the final hour bounced to 2088.50, fulfilling the corrective bounce target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down to 2081.00. That was extended gradually overnight to probe under Friday’s low down to 2077.00 just ahead of Europe’s opens. It’s support, being is this morning’s bias-down target. Recovering to fresh overnight highs that attacked 2085.00 didn’t prevent reacting down again to 2078.00. But that’s now being retraced to 2083.00.

If, then…
Last night’s path is tracking the template we discussed during Saturday Review as being the most likely for a bullish resolution. Of course, until the open it’s still somewhat similar to the bearish template. First, reacting down Sunday night validated that Friday’s late bounce was only a correction. Also, probing Friday’s low has been defended by a bounce, and its fresh high proves it was not arbitrary. But the bullish template shouldn’t isolate the support test to overnight, which the current bounce is attempting. Not retesting Friday’s low post-open before bouncing and delaying fresh lows intraday would likely only contribute to an afternoon bearish scenario.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2086.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2082.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2080.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.