The First Trade… Biding time.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open immediately resumed Thursday afternoon’s rally. The 2090.00 open extended to 2095.50 by noon. Yellen’s comments produced the negative knee-jerk reaction and its retest that was expected to launch a recovery. The 6-point pullback to the opening print had stretched the rubber band to launch an 8-point rally through the close. All but 1 tick of the potential to 2097.00-2098.00 was fulfilled.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday afternoon’s rally resumed immediately Sunday night, trending up to 2103.75 by midnight. Drifting to as low as 2099.50 never got any more volatile before the holiday’s Globex close. But Monday night’s Globex session extended the pullback to 2098.00 and then more recently to 2096.00. Its reaction up is probing back above Friday’s late highs.

If, then…
Complexity during Sunday night’s probe of fresh highs created a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest, often the same day. It touched the six-week old 2101.00-2102.00 Apr 19 pivotal high, which tends to require extending to test the 2108.00-2109.00 Apr 20 actual high. Resuming the rally this morning might not be necessary for keeping intact the relatively steep trajectory that has been expected for this leg. But any pullback should be confined to the morning’s bias environment to avoid signaling a deeper detour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2098.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2101.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2103.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2093.00 would be likely to trigger the 2091.25 bias-down signal.