The First Trade… Big, big test for a big, big day.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Oversold RSIs accompanied Thursday’s late-afternoon retest of the morning’s oversold RSIs at 2126.75. Another bounce would be doomed to failure, while making more than a retest likely. Firming up to 2129.50 ended the cash session at 2127.75. Reaction to AMZN’s earnings miss triggered a plunge to fresh lows, touching the 2122.50 target as futures closed.

Overnight action’s new info…
Reaction up from the post-close 2122.50 target was immediate and didn’t stop until touching 2129.50. Flat-to-lower ranging broke down sharply at Europe’s opens and slid to 2116.00. Its 6-point bounce was retraced almost entirely. That happened quickly, as has a 12-point rally back above yesterday’s lows which is now testing the 2127.75 cash session close.

If, then…
Wednesday morning’s 2125.00 low had retraced last Friday’s expiration range as deeply as possible without also requiring at least a probe under 2118.00. Isolating Thursday’s post-close dip under 2125.00 could have been dismissed, but overnight action has fulfilled the lower probe, anyway. Opening Friday in positive territory would isolate it, and could avoid the risk of extending down through it intraday. Reversing momentum up this morning could trigger a massive short-squeeze, but barely opening in positive territory probably wouldn’t suffice. Currently bouncing back up to unchanged remains vulnerable to failing already well before the open, and had better extend higher soon to avoid entering the weekend challenging 2095.00 and potentially 2082.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2123.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2125.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.