The First Trade… Big, swinging range.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s high touched the 2209.50 target of Friday’s bias signal. Monday afternoon’s high attacked it. But positive territory was never recovered. And the afternoon’s no-bias environment lapsed without trying another recovery, so a decline filled the void. And it extended until probing he 2199.50 overnight low by 5 ticks as the position-squaring window lapsed. Monday’s last several minutes bounced to 2201.00. More “unfinished business above” was created, and left outstanding. The gap back up to Friday’s 2210.50 cash session close, and Monday morning’s 2211.50 bias-up signal, are both likely to be tested before a durable downleg can begin. .
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s last-minute bounce was corrected by more than 3 points to test 2199.00. Probing above 2202.00 before Europe’s opens improved up to 2206.00. Another reaction down of more than 3 points has since ranged around this morning’s 2203.75 bias-up signal.
If, then…
Yesterday’s close at fresh intraday lows put into play a retest of 2192.00 prior lows, probably down to 2187.50. That downleg would be delayed by gapping up today above yesterday afternoon’s 2207.00 high. The delay setup would also form a “session-long rally,” likely to test the newly-created “unfinished business above” at 2210.50 and 2211.50 — which is in addition to the 2220.00 objective put into play by closing last week above 2192.00. So, today’s open is currently indicated at the midpoint of a 30-35 point range. Either end is equally likely to be tested, before reversing to the opposite end. And the resolution to today’s open could tell us which end will be tested first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2207.00 would be likely to trigger the 2203.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2201.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.