The First Trade… Buyers backing off.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Even just threatening to attack 2192.00 was likely also to visit 2187.50, which was the decline’s minimum downside target. Thursday’s open at Wednesday’s late 2202.00 resistance did reverse down to probe fresh lows, extending through the session until touching 2187.50. A fresh low was probed briefly down to 2186.00. The late dip was isolated to the final hour, again suggesting the decline is by weak-handed sponsorship. A last-minute bounce targeting 2192.25 was met and held.

Overnight action’s new info…
Fulfilling last-minute buying pressure had required the bounce to extend immediately, if at all. And it didn’t. Slowly trending back down to 2187.50 became steeper at Europe’s opens, dropping to fresh lows at 2184.25. Now a bounce is testing 2187.50 as resistance.

If, then…
Extending down any deeper after the open would likely also visit “lower prior highs” at 2181.00. Probing lower overnight doesn’t yet mandate this lower objective. But probing lower overnight does open the door to a recovery setup other than gapping up. And that would be accomplished by isolating a post-open test of the 2184.25 overnight low, already rallying back above prior lows coming out of the open. Otherwise, holding 2181.00 or breaking under it will be vulnerable to Friday Factors that are influenced by the weekend’s impending illiquidity.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered before an Employment Situation report.