The First Trade… Calm before the storm.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning completely retraced its overnight plunge. The open had already recovered from 2070.25 to 2080.25, and the bias environment began lapsing at its 2093.75 objective. The noon hour’s pullback became something else entirely, triggering the 2088.00 bias-down signal and extending well below its target to 2065.25. Ultimately, 2067.00-2069.00 held as support.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s closing bounce was extended to its 2075.50 target, and reversed down immediately. That cycle has repeated several times while ranging choppily between 2068.00-2075.00.

If, then…
Gapping up enough to reject yesterday afternoon’s decline seems unlikely now. Hovering optimistically short of touching yesterday’s lows isn’t likely to suddenly launch a durable rally. So, suddenly launching a durable rally would be likely to fail. Recovering from at least a momentarily blip-down to fresh lows would be more credible. Of course, that setup’s first stage would meanwhile risk extending yesterday afternoon’s decline. And that could extend to the 2056.00 area’s “lower prior highs.” Whichever the session intends, it should be obvious early, as Friday morning biases are likely to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2064.00 would be likely to trigger the 2066.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2069.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.