The First Trade… While the cats are away.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Trending down relentlessly Monday night and gapping down Tuesday held a test of Friday’s morning’s 2039.00 opening print. Its support produced a bounce to 2048.00 that was reversed to fresh session lows coming out of the noon hour. The bias environment’s bounce to 2046.00 was also reversed to fresh session lows at 2034.25 into the close. The session’s last sell signal that triggered under 2042.50 was neutralized by its last bounce limit that was violated above 2035.75.

Overnight action’s new info…
Spiking up into the futures close was extended overnight to 2049.50. That has been retraced down to 2040.50, which an interim bounce to 2047.00 has reversed down to test what had been yesterday’s last sell signal under 2042.50.

If, then…
Tuesday avoided extending the overnight slide. But the burden of proof is on buyers at this stage of the pattern. Not yet recovering or forming an accumulative pattern only keeps the door open to extending the decline. Having ended Tuesday’s cash session at fresh relative lows, only gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday afternoon’s 2046.00 high can invalidate the decline’s momentum. Probing above it overnight and still not recovering it through the open would only add to the downside selling pressure. Regardless, now having testing 2044.50, a break back under 2041.00 (tested once already) would likely resume the decline.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2041.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2044.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2046.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.