The First Trade… The chop before the storm.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
An overnight rally to 2098.00 had pulled back just enough to avoid gapping up at Wednesday’s open. That created an objective at 2088.25, which was attacked to within 5 ticks before OPEC’s headlines triggered a surge to fresh highs above 2100.00. We knew to expect the rally’s failure since it was no-bias trending, and since Tuesday’s buyers had not gained traction. Waiting until 2105.25 only exacerbated the failure, which almost 10 points into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
A slightly lower low at 2095.00 was recovered 2104.00 into midnight. That steady recovery has been replaced by a choppy decline back to yesterday’s 2096.50 cash session close. Its reaction up is now testing 2100.00. The ECB monetary decision and Draghi’s always-volatile press conference still lie ahead.

If, then…
The retest of last year’s last relative high at 2110.00 is very close. More than touching it is likely before reacting down durably, but only attacking it could react down substantially. Yesterday’s no-bias trending is the work of overly-optimistic weak hands, which appears more often before turning points. If yesterday’s late plunge was a warning shot, then exiting today’s open any lower could target yesterday morning’s “unfinished business below” at 2088.25 and lower.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2103.50 would be likely to trigger the 2101.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2098.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2088.25 would be likely to trigger the 2093.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.