The First Trade… Coiling.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s choppiness had ranged between 2051.50-2063.50, literally 6 points either way around its flat 2057.00 open. Two probes into positive territory were each followed by probing negative territory. The second probe never recovered, sliding through the noon hour and bias environment. The 2046.00 overnight low was probed down to 2038.50, back into the prior Friday’s range, before firming to close at 2042.25-2043.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked down to 2035.00 and immediately began firming. The steady rise had soon recovered positive territory, eventually probing it up to 2049.25. Gradually lower highs have been hovering for hours at or above Friday’s 2042.25-2043.50 close.

If, then…
Dipping into the prior Friday’s range — the multi-week decline’s lows — essentially requires resolving suddenly. Essentially. Almost any delay to resolving down would get a slight benefit of the doubt for resolving up, if only by default as the decline fails to attract new sponsorship. Actually, ONLY by default. Rallying would still need to trigger a signal, at least a bias-up. Meanwhile, probing lower can still be absorbed if not maintained through a relevant timing window. Last night’s momentary spike down is one example that I described during this weekend’s Saturday Review.

First Trade…
Oddly, there are no preliminary levels in the overnight pattern for anticipating the morning’s Bias signal.