The First Trade… Complacently waiting.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s quadruple witch expiration open gapped up to only attack the 2264.00 overnight high, which was also the morning’s bias-up signal. Price almost immediately began trending down, extending to test 2250.00 as support coming out of the noon hour. The decline stopped there, as the bullish WedEX would begin influencing price at the bias environment’s entry. Although no new low printed, bounces up to 2255.00 never actually reversed the trend up as a president’s press conference grabbed attention.

Overnight action’s new info…
Opening flat with Friday’s 2255.00 close lasted only several seconds before surging to 2259.50. The surge lasted only several seconds before it stopped, suddenly. And durably. Choppy sideways ranging since the open’s surge has been relatively narrow, contained between 2257.00-2261.00. The lower-end is now being retested.

If, then…
The open’s surge suggests that Friday’s ranging at session lows was actually pent-up buying pressure. That would comport with the assumption that bullish WedEX was inhibited by coinciding with the president’s press conference. That doesn’t assure gapping up, or avoid gapping down, And only the opening action can offer any further assurance of the bullish WedEX influencing this morning’s action. If it does, then price should trend up, possibly aggressively. Not already rallying obviously past the open could suggest no bullish influence, and open the door to resolving “unfinished business below” at 2243.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2261.50 would be likely to trigger the 2260.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2257.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.