The First Trade… Containing their optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open blipped-down to touch the 2081.75 bias-down signal. Without triggering it, an offsetting test of the 2091.00 bias-up signal was put into play. That didn’t prevent a mid-morning drop to the 2075.50 bias-down target. But holding its test only cemented the 2091.00 objective into becoming “unfinished business above.” Friday afternoon rallied to fulfill two interim objectives, first retracing the morning’s bias-down signal, and then extending to the 10:15 2086.00 print. No traction was gained, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Don’t blink, you’ll miss it… Sunday night’s open gapped up to 2091.50, immediately fulfilling Friday’s unfinished business above. That bit of optimism was reversed abruptly by a reversal that eventually tested 2081.75. A bounce attacked 2086.00 into Europe’s opens. Its optimism was also reversed abruptly, too, by steep slide that tested Friday’s 2075.00 low down to 2074.00. Optimism is poking its head out again, retracing all of the last drop to attack 2086.00 again.
If, then…
Unfinished business below and above at 2075.00 and 2091.00 did not require intraday retest. Their attractions are now neutralized. And the open is indicated essentially unchanged around 2086.00. Opening flat with no outstanding attraction would make for a very lifeless morning. Resuming the rally is still likelier, more so after three overnight instances of quashing optimism. The latest instance — recovering the steep slide from 2086.00 — has formed a Symmetrical Triangle whose break lower may be resolving up now. Gapping up would be helpful confirmation, while a flat open would suggest another attack on the lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2086.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2089.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.