The First Trade… Damned only if they don’t.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s plunge from 2172.00 down to 2154.00 was recovered up to 2168.50 during the noon hour, and the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. The recovery’s momentum was spent, pre-payrolls anxiousness was looming, and holiday illiquidity wasn’t far behind. Last Friday’s low was likely to be probed and not just attacked such as at Wednesday’s low. And it wasn’t likely to be broken by an attempt after Wednesday’s close. So, the recovery quickly followed after neutralizing Wednesday’s “unfinished business below” at 2156.50.The afternoon’s 2170.75 bias-up target was left outstanding..

Overnight action’s new info…
After one night’s absence, narrow ranging has returned. That’s now four out of five overnight ranges limited to 4-5 points. Where the prior instances were due to nothing stimulating enthusiasm, now price is constrained by fear of coming news.

If, then…
I’ve noticed the market hasn’t rallied this week on traditionally bullish news of weaker economic reports. Those data would suggest the Fed won’t raise rates, which the market now seems to want — if only to get it over with. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction to the prospect of a hike can’t be avoided, nor should it be. But patterns suggest the negative reaction would likely be only temporary. Weaker payrolls would suggest the opposite, triggering selling into the weekend — especially now that last Friday’s low was chipped away Thursday. Otherwise, genuinely strong employment growth that seems to force the Fed’s hand could be very bullish after prices first dip… REMINDERS: I WILL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS AFTER THE NOON HOUR. AND THIS BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW. WE WILL  HAVE AN EARLY AND EXPANDED MARKET WRAP...

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.