The First Trade… Dancing on the edge.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Ultimately trending down through July 4 greeted the holiday-shortened week gapping down 4-1/2 points under 2089.75. Its recovery through Friday’s close had created a requirement for eventually probing prior highs. Fresh lows into the afternoon attacked 2072.00, leaving no “unfinished business below,” but not forming a solid base. Bouncing into the close was unlikely to be maintained.

Overnight action’s new info…
Attacking 2085.00 resistance was reversed back down to probe well under Tuesday’s lows. A recovery began before midnight from 2067.50, probing a fresh high at 2085.75 through Europe’s opens. That sizable rally was rejected, dropping entirely back down to fresh lows at 2066.75. And now that sizable drop is reacting back up, at least to 2072.50.

If, then…
The most bullish scenario described during yesterday’s Wrap was to greet this morning’s open already in recovery mode from an overnight retest of yesterday’s lows. Price action through Europe’s opens seemed to be on that path, having reversed back up through yesterday’s close. Rejecting the entire overnight recovery could still try, try again. But triggering bias-down, even without renewing it under the target, could extend next to 2055.00-2056.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2069.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2071.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2077.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2076.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.