The First Trade… That deer in headlights look.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down 6 points Thursday to 2264.50 extended through the morning. The prior three sessions’ lows were probed down to 2248.50. Already reversing up before noon, the entire afternoon rallied to a last-minute touch of 2267.00. Late-afternoon swings all overlapped the 2264.50 open, stopping short of Wednesday’s 2271.50 close. Traction was gained by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and then entering the final hour higher.
Overnight action’s new info…
More like, overnight lack-of-action. Thursday’s huge swing went immediately into hibernation. Ranging very narrowly between 2264.25-2266.25 has only recently tried probing higher. The probe was even shallower than than the range. Barely piercing yesterday’s last-minute high by a couple of ticks proved untenable, as price soon dipped back into the narrow range.
If, then…
This morning’s bullish scenario would already be rallying through Friday’s open, and overcome the gap at Wednesday’s 2270.50 close. Recovering it could easily gravitate back up to the highs, with counter-trend sponsorship difficult to generate ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Sponsorship is difficult to generate all around, and 2271.50 is meanwhile resistance. Immediately rallying out of yesterday’s entirely negative session would already be suspect. A more bullish scenario would back-and-fill initially, with a relatively shallow temporary dip to 2257.50. The bearish scenario would extend under Thursday’s noon hour “lower prior highs” at 2254.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2271.50 bias-us up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2262.00 bias-down signal. The same 2266.00 level serves as both bias signal’s preliminary indicator because of the extremely narrow overnight rally between them.