The First Trade… Delayed reaction.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Plunging overnight to probe the 1805.00 3-week old lows by 3 points had reversed up partially through Thursday’s open to attack 1834.50 to within 1 point. The balance of the bias environment was spent falling back down toward the lows at 1807.50. A modest (relatively) bounce to 1822.00 was retraced to 1805.00 at the afternoon’s bias environment exit, a virtual air pocket below it. Oil suddenly surged and so the break was reversed up to 1834.50 before the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Probing slightly higher to 1837.00 was quickly reversed back down to attack 1822.00. Already recovering into Europe’s opens, higher highs have now extended up to 1847.50.

If, then…
Yesterday’s late recovery had initially stopped pessimistically short of touching the morning’s high, which suggested its actual recovery would almost literally explode higher on the way to at least 1850.00. It didn’t, which was more pessimism (potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective) but sellers retained control. Even if the overnight extension were to touch 1850.00, sellers can retain control if post-open action doesn’t still extend higher. Yesterday’s late break lower was victim of the impending weekend illiquidity — 3-day weekend, no less — that makes sponsorship vulnerable. Gapping up is itself always vulnerable, too.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1845.50 would be unlikely to reverse back under the 1841.25 bias-up target through 10:15, and likely to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 1850.25. Exiting the open under 1838.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target long enough to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the opeen under 1829.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 1834.50 bias-up signal.