The First Trade… Detour beginning?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
While all eyes have been on Dow 20k, which was attacked Friday to within 1 point, S&Ps fulfilled our long-awaited retest of the 2273.00 prior high. Its 2275.50 objective was probed up to 2277.00 during the noon hour. The balance of the afternoon fluctuated choppily around 2275.50, back down to 2273.00, and then another couple of points lower into the close. Closing above 2275.50 would have put into play the next higher objective, but there’s still room for noise up to 2278.25. Meanwhile, also holding the 2273.00 prior high robs the rally of some momentum. But Friday’s close was the trend’s highest, yet.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open began with an errant tick touching 2270.50, and then reversed up steadily into Europe’s opens. Attacking 2275.50 resistance to within 1 tick was vulnerable, and that vulnerability has resulted in a 7-1/2 point slide to 2267.75.
If, then…
New trend high closes on Fridays require at least an eventual higher close before a durable decline would be credible. Which doesn’t prevent a near-term correction from beginning And if a correction is beginning, it may last only several day, or else it could last several weeks. Its first day can help to forecast which. Gapping down doesn’t prevent recovering intraday — in fact, the 2268.50 target of Friday’s late sell signal triggered under 2273.75 was met and held (so far) overnight. Recovering today can’t yet be dismissed, let alone already producing that next higher close. Regardless, fresh highs could be probed today without being maintained through the close. Otherwise, triggering a bias-down today would be likely if a correction is already underway.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2273.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2275.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2268.50 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2265.50 bias-down signal.