The First Trade… Drifting toward the lows.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s probe under its bias-down signal down to 2035.25 was recovered in time to put into play an offsetting test of its bias-up signal. The steep morning rally wreaked of impatient buying. But overly-optimistic buyers triggered the afternoon’s bias-up signal and quickly met its 2057.75 target. But that only left buyers unable to defend against hawkish FOMC Minutes that triggered a 27-point plunge. Its 2033.00 objective was probed to within 1 tick of touching the nearly two-week old 2030.50 low. Its reaction up attacked 2046.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s late bounce never extended, and soon began retracing back toward Wednesday’s plunge low. Support at 2033.00 has held repeated tests, optimistically avoiding a retest of yesterday’s low.

If, then…
Spotted the pattern? Optimism remains alive, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Yesterday’s intraday rally had originated from only a very shallow probe under prior lows. Today’s rally attempts are likely to be more skeptical, so I wouldn’t trust any bounce prior to testing 2025.00-2027.00. While the price pattern doesn’t require bouncing at all, the ongoing optimism may interfere again. Unless the open were to recover positive territory and then extend higher quickly, fresh lows are likely.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2033.00 would be likely to trigger the 2036.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2043.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.