The First Trade… Excess excessive optimism.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s slide had broken the back of a choppy three-day range, retracing back down to the original 2025.25 Belgium-reaction low. Extending down relentlessly overnight had greeted Friday’s open at 2015.00. The open attacked 2012.00 and then reversed the trend back up. All of the overnight drop was retraced back to 2030.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open remained well above Friday’s 2027.00 cash session close, and soon extended Friday’s recovery up to 2035.50. Surging at Europe’s opens soon attacked 2040.00. That has been retraced back down to 2033.00, still in positive territory, testing a 61.8% retracement of the overnight rally.

If, then…
If Friday’s low-volume, pre-holiday weekend rally was sponsored by weak hands, then its entire leg should be retraced. Friday’s gap down should be retraced eventually back to its open. No “unfinished business above” remains outstanding to justify delaying the decline’s resumption. So, delaying the decline’s resumption much past the open would suggest the decline won’t resume this morning.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2031.00 would be likely to trigger the 2028.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2025.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2037.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2035.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.