The First Trade… Exuberance, of some sort.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted by another single-minded relentless overnight rally from 2027.00 to 2044.00. Its resolution had to differ from the prior day, so it gapped up and trended up through every timing window. The bias environment exit and final hour entry each were overlapping their prior timing window highs. Extending to fresh highs at 2064.50 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window was the cash session high. The futures close firmed to fresh highs at 2067.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
As if the relentless rally couldn’t get any more odd, post-close buyback announcements by a bevy of big banks triggered a surge that attacked 2075.00 — all during maintenance. Globex re-opened at 2072.00-2073.00 and trended down to 2056.50 through Europe’s opens. Rallying since then has retraced back up to fresh highs. At least, probing the open up to 2073.75, while the maintenance high lies 1 point higher.
If, then…
Wednesday’s rally came within 3 ticks of Friday morning’s post-open bounce high at 2064.75. That’s natural resistance. That’s also a 61.8% retracement of the drop from Thursday’s 2019.50 post-close high. Which is also natural resistance. These independent resistance levels can be probed intraday to any degree — like 2077.00 — but closing negative would confirm this rally has been only a temporary corrective bounce, perhaps the product of quarter-end window dressing, and that it has ended. And that would confirm Friday and Monday’s trend change signal. Regardless, the rally is vulnerable to at least a corrective dip, as it has been since Monday’s close..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2061.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2065.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2067.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2075.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2071.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2077.00.