The First Trade… All eyes on ECB.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open needed only to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2185.50 cash session close before it would be vulnerable to reversing down. The open did more than that, briefly probing above Tuesday’s last-minute 2186.75 high, and then reversing down, forming a Pivot Reversal structure. Reversing down persisted through the noon hour to 2177.50. The balance of the session trended back up to 2185.50. No unfinished business was left outstanding, but the morning’s Pivot Reversal structure identified buyers as weak-handed.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s recovery had begun firming to greet Europe’s opens another point higher at 2186.50. The immediate reaction extended to fresh highs at 2189.25. That has since been retraced down to 2185.50 ahead of this morning’s ECB policy statement.

If, then…
Wednesday’s Pivot Reversal structure essentially requires a retest of the morning’s 2177.50 low. Not having done it already Wednesday makes it very likely to be done Thursday. So, gapping up and probing higher this morning would remain extremely vulnerable to reversing down sharply this afternoon. Regardless of the gap up that futures currently indicate, the actual open will depend more on reaction to the ECB monetary policy statement and ECB chair Draghi’s Q&A. Gapping up above yesterday’s high can ignore buyers not gaining traction yesterday, albeit probably only for the morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2189.00 would be likely to trigger the 2187.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2183.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.