The First Trade… Flat and happy.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open greeted the new week by surging back to Friday’s high, but holding its bias-up signal. Diving to the offsetting test of its bias-down signal formed the session low, all contained within Friday’s range. Recovering back up to the morning’s highs only ranged narrowly through the afternoon between 2180.50-2181.50. A late breakout was too late to be strong-handed sponsorship, but it extended up to 2186.25.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s last-minute surge did not extend even a single tick higher, nor has it been rejected. But it has been retraced, although not immediately. A narrow 2-point range holding 2184.00 expanded suddenly to 3 points at Europe’s opens, dipping back down to 2182.75. Recovering back up to 2186.25 was reversed back into the range, and now back down to fresh lows at 2182.25.

If, then…
Tuesday’s lateness of its breakout doesn’t preclude extending higher, even without gapping up. But either scenario is less likely. Less likely, but still possible. However, extending much higher than a morning rally would be unlikely. And reversing back down would be likely. All of which applies to a rally attempt, which is not required, assured, or even likely. Meanwhile, having trended up into Tuesday’s close, gapping down back under Tuesday afternoon’s 2180.50 low could form a session-long decline. The setup would marginalize sellers buyers for the day, and could fill the gap at Thursday’s 2169.00 close down to 2166.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2180.50 above would be unlikely to trigger the 2177.75 bias-down signal at 10:15.