The First Trade… Fluctuating around yesterday’s highs.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted just under Wednesday’s 2260.50 low. That extended down to 2251.50 through the morning. The afternoon bounced to 2259.00 through the close. No oversold RSIs below or no-bias trending above were left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Consolidating initially back down to 2257.50 eventually resumed trending higher, touching 2261.00 at Europe’s opens. A quick reaction down to 2258.50 has since held for several hours, hovering just above yesterday’s highs.

If, then…
Thursday afternoon’s 2253.00 low had touched the “lower prior high” of a shallow consolidation at the morning’s low. That’s only an obligatory low until its reaction recovers the relevant prior high. Intraday, that prior high was 2258.00. Now the relevant prior high is 2260.50-2262.00, which was tested overnight up to 2261.00. It’s recovery through the open would target Tuesday’s 2269.50 high, and not immediately recovering 2258.00 would target fresh lows at 2249.50, inhibited only by the low-volume context of pre-holiday trading. Trending is difficult to start, difficult to stop once started, and difficult to reverse when participation is evaporating at an exponential pace because of the impending three days of illiquidity.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2260.50 would be likely to trigger the 2259.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2257.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.