The First Trade… Frighteningly calm, again.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
A narrow 3-4 point overnight range was deceptively calm. Then Friday morning’s rat-a-tat-tat barrage of headlines from Jackson Hole triggered a first-hour 17-point swing. Its 2186.75 high was reversed back down under three-week old lows, filling a an old gap back at 2160.00 down to 2157.50. Friday ended with a 13-point bounce to 2170.25, a 38.2% retracement of the morning’s high.

Overnight action’s new info…
More so than being narrow, last night’s 5-point range is again relatively calm. Sunday night’s open had dipped briefly down to 2164.50. Its eventual retest is now probing the interim high by 1 point up to 2169.50.

If, then…
Closing at 2168.00 avoided putting into play a lower objective, but closing again under 2177.00 indicates the massive topping pattern is probably rolling over. Extending under 2168.00 would have indicated the massive topping pattern is extending down, and under 2156.50 would target a test of 2141.50. At a minimum. Gapping up Monday above 2188.00 would give the pattern another opportunity to probe fresh highs first. Otherwise, resuming Friday’s mid-day slide today would be difficult without the open already gapping down to or through Friday’s low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2171.50 would be likely to trigger the 2173.50 bias-down signal at 10:!5. Exiting the open above 2166.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.